NBA Trade Verdict

Grizzlies Win

Memphis Grizzlies won the 2016-02-18 trade in hindsight: Los Angeles Clippers' return of Jeff Green did not match the realized value of Lance Stephenson; first-round pick (at least 2 years after Clippers convey first-round pick to Raptors from earlier trade) (protected top 14 in 2019-20, else 2022 second-round pick) (2019 #20-Matisse Thybulle).

February 18, 2016 LA Clippers / Memphis Grizzlies Record confidence: High

LA Clippers Received

Memphis Grizzlies Received

  • Player Lance Stephenson
  • Draft Pick first-round pick (at least 2 years after Clippers convey first-round pick to Raptors from earlier trade) (protected top 14 in 2019-20, else 2022 second-round pick) (2019 #20- Matisse Thybulle )

Trade Analysis

The Clippers Paid for a Short-Term Wing Upgrade

Los Angeles acquired Jeff Green from Memphis at the 2016 deadline for Lance Stephenson and a protected future first-round pick. The idea was easy to understand: the Clippers were trying to strengthen a contender around Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, and Green gave them a bigger scoring wing who could play either forward spot. He appeared in 27 regular-season games for Los Angeles, started 10 and averaged 10.9 points and 3.4 rebounds in 26.3 minutes.

Green's Stay Ended After One Playoff Run

Green also played all six games of the Clippers' first-round loss to Portland, but the rental ended there. He entered free agency and signed with Orlando in July 2016. Los Angeles therefore spent a future first-round asset for 33 total games, including the playoffs, without retaining Green beyond that season. The short-term logic was defensible for a team chasing a deep playoff run, but the result did not deliver enough postseason value to offset the draft cost.

Memphis Got Production and Preserved Future Value

Stephenson was more productive in Memphis than he had been with the Clippers, averaging 14.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 26 games. The more important return was the protected Clippers first. Memphis later sent that future pick to Boston on draft night in 2016 for the rights to Deyonta Davis and Rade Zagorac. The pick eventually conveyed in 2019 at No. 20, where Matisse Thybulle was selected. Memphis did not draft Thybulle, but the eventual slot confirms the real value of the future first it had acquired.

The Draft Asset Creates the Hindsight Gap

Neither Davis nor Zagorac became a major long-term piece for Memphis, so the Grizzlies' return was not a franchise-changing haul. Still, they received useful immediate scoring from Stephenson and turned an expiring Green into a first-round asset that could be redeployed. Los Angeles got only a partial season from Green before he left in free agency. The canonical A- for Memphis and C for the Clippers reflects the cost of surrendering a real first-rounder for a rental who did not alter the team's playoff outcome.

Final Verdict

Grizzlies Win — Memphis A-, LA Clippers C. Green gave Los Angeles 27 regular-season games and six playoff appearances before leaving in free agency. Memphis received 26 productive games from Stephenson plus a protected first-round pick, then converted that pick into Deyonta Davis and Rade Zagorac. The pick later conveyed at No. 20 in the 2019 draft, where Matisse Thybulle was selected. The Clippers made a reasonable contender's bet, but the completed value of a short rental did not justify the first-round cost.

Research sources (8)