NBA Trade Verdict

Pelicans Win

Win. Atlanta received a legitimate starter in De'Andre Hunter, but New Orleans' diversified return produced Nickeil Alexander-Walker, multiple developmental shots and the future-pick chain that became Herb Jones. Hayes' disappointing development keeps the grade below A+, while Hunter's real playoff value protects Atlanta from a harsh mark. The total portfolio still favors New Orleans, A to B.

July 6, 2019 Atlanta Hawks / New Orleans Pelicans Record confidence: High

Atlanta Hawks Received

New Orleans Pelicans Received

  • Draft Rights rights to Jaxson Hayes
  • Draft Rights rights to Nickeil Alexander-Walker
  • Draft Rights rights to Didi Louzada
  • Draft Pick draft pick(s) (2020 first round pick (protected top 10 in 2020), else 2021 second round pick, 2022 second round pick) (2021 #35-Herb Jones) (2022 #47-Vince Williams Jr.)

Trade Analysis

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: What Actually Changed Hands

On July 6, 2019, New Orleans converted the No. 4 pick and related pieces into a broad package from Atlanta. The Hawks acquired the draft rights to De'Andre Hunter and sent New Orleans the rights to Jaxson Hayes, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Didi Louzada plus future draft compensation. The protected first structure later converted into second-round value, including the pick that became Herb Jones. The trade was part of the Pelicans' attempt to turn the Anthony Davis reset into multiple bites at the draft. This analysis focuses on the exchange itself rather than later franchise history. The important inputs are who was actually moved, how long the incoming assets remained useful, whether draft rights became identifiable players, and whether later value can be traced directly to the original exchange. Team success outside that chain is context, not automatic credit. That distinction prevents a famous name from overwhelming the actual return and also prevents a rebuilding team from being punished simply because it chose a longer timeline.

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: Why the Higher Grade Holds Up

New Orleans did not hit on every incoming piece, but the portfolio produced enough value to justify the strategy. Hayes never developed into the lottery-level center the team hoped for, yet Alexander-Walker became a legitimate NBA guard and the future-pick chain yielded Herb Jones, one of the league's strongest defensive wings on a second-round contract. That downstream hit matters because it was a direct consequence of the protection structure in the original trade rather than an unrelated later move. The higher grade is therefore based on both quality and control. A team deserves more credit when it receives a useful player for several seasons, a meaningful playoff contributor, or an asset that can later be converted without adding disproportionate new value. It deserves less credit when the headline acquisition is productive but short-lived or when later success depends mostly on unrelated moves. The comparison here is not perfection versus failure; it is which side created the stronger combination of performance, duration, fit and retained flexibility.

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: What the Other Side Still Received

Atlanta received a good player in Hunter. He became a starting-caliber two-way forward, contributed to the Hawks' 2021 conference-finals run and later retained trade value. That keeps Atlanta from receiving a weak grade. The issue is concentration: the Hawks gave up several chances to move up for one prospect, and Hunter's injuries plus uneven offensive development prevented him from creating enough separation to overwhelm the combined Pelicans package. Atlanta got a useful starter, just not enough total value to win the trade details. The lower grade still has to recognize real accomplishments. A veteran can stabilize a lineup, a salary move can open choices, and a draft asset can remain useful even if it never becomes a star. The grade falls only when those benefits are materially smaller than what the team surrendered. That approach matters because hindsight should measure the actual exchange without rewriting the original market. The losing side is not judged against an imaginary offer; it is judged against the value the winning side actually realized from the assets that changed hands.

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: The Asset Chain After the First Move

The future-pick branch is the swing factor. Because Atlanta's protected first did not convey as a first, the obligation became second-round picks, and one of those selections became Herb Jones. Jones quickly supplied elite perimeter defense, positional versatility and starter-level minutes at a low salary. The other incoming players were mixed, but the Jones outcome gave New Orleans a premium role player from a secondary asset. That kind of conversion is exactly why multi-asset draft trades can age better than they appear on draft night. Downstream credit is kept conservative. If an incoming player or pick is later traded, only the value clearly carried forward from that asset belongs in this trade details; an unrelated star acquired with several additional premium pieces cannot be credited back in full. The same rule applies to draft capital. A pick matters most when it conveys and becomes a player or when it is directly rerouted in a documented transaction. This keeps the analysis from turning every long franchise history into one endless chain and focuses the grade on value tied directly to the deal.

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: Timing, Leverage and Team Direction

Atlanta was willing to consolidate because Hunter fit a specific need next to Trae Young and John Collins. New Orleans was starting a rebuild and preferred volume, youth and future control. Both strategies were coherent. The Pelicans could tolerate misses because the return was diversified; Atlanta needed Hunter to be clearly better than the combination of Hayes, Alexander-Walker and the future picks. Hunter was solid enough to make the trade competitive but not dominant enough to overcome New Orleans' extra chances. Trade-day context shapes leverage but does not erase outcomes. Age, contract status, injuries, roster balance, tax pressure and the competitive window can all explain why a club accepted a package that looks uneven years later. Those conditions can soften a grade because they define the realistic menu of alternatives. They cannot, however, convert a modest return into an excellent one after the fact. The strongest evaluation combines the options available at the time with what the chosen option eventually produced.

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: The Realistic Alternative

Atlanta could have remained at its original draft positions and selected multiple players, while New Orleans could have kept the No. 4 pick and chosen Hunter or another top prospect. The Pelicans' decision essentially traded certainty for a portfolio. That portfolio contained one lottery miss, one useful guard and one excellent second-round hit. Because the diversified path created more usable pieces over time, the counterfactual does not reveal an obvious missed opportunity for New Orleans. A useful counterfactual stays narrow. The question is not whether a general manager could have foreseen every future draft result or invented a package no team offered. It is whether keeping the outgoing asset, waiting, or choosing the most obvious alternative path would likely have preserved more value. When the actual move solves a real problem efficiently, that supports the grade. When it pays a premium to solve a temporary problem or sacrifices durable control without enough return, the hindsight penalty is justified.

Final Verdict

Pelicans Win. Atlanta received a legitimate starter in De'Andre Hunter, but New Orleans' diversified return produced Nickeil Alexander-Walker, multiple developmental shots and the future-pick chain that became Herb Jones. Hayes' disappointing development keeps the grade below A+, while Hunter's real playoff value protects Atlanta from a harsh mark. The total portfolio still favors New Orleans, A to B. The grading scale also avoids extremes unless the evidence demands them. An A-range result should reflect either exceptional value, a major postseason contribution, a premium asset chain, or several strong outcomes from a modest cost. A C-range result can still include useful players or legitimate strategic benefits, while a D or F requires a clear and durable value deficit. That scale keeps this transaction comparable with the other evidence-based reviews rather than treating every winner as an A+ and every loser as a failure.

For Hardcore NBA Heads

Deep Dive: Regrading De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package deserves a full-ledger review because the headline alone does not capture the value that survived after the transaction. The deep dive separates immediate production from years of control, traces only direct follow-on assets, and weighs the original competitive context without allowing it to override completed results. The goal is to explain not only who won, but why the grade gap is the size it is.

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: Peak Value Versus Total Value

Hunter had the highest individual draft status and moments of high-level playoff contribution, but Jones became the most efficient value relative to acquisition cost. Alexander-Walker also developed into a useful rotation guard after leaving New Orleans, though only the value created while the Pelicans controlled him or through any direct chain should count. The comparison favors total portfolio output rather than the single best season from one player. On that basis, New Orleans pulls ahead. Peak value and total value can point in different directions. The best player in the deal may create the highest single-season impact, while the other side collects more seasons, more roster flexibility or several useful pieces. A retrospective grade has to weigh both. Elite postseason performance can overcome a shorter tenure; a long but replaceable role usually cannot overcome a genuine star. Here, the balance between peak and duration helps explain why the final grades are separated by the amount shown rather than by reputation alone.

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: Which Follow-On Assets Count

The Pelicans did not need every prospect to stay in New Orleans forever for the trade to have value. Drafted players can contribute, carry trade value or help shape later roster decisions. The critical point is that the original package produced multiple NBA-caliber outcomes and a premium defender in Jones. Atlanta eventually had the option to move Hunter because he retained market value, which deserves credit, but that later flexibility still came from one principal asset rather than several independent branches. Follow-on value is especially important when the original return stays liquid. A player who remains tradable, a pick that conveys, or a contract that can be rerouted gives the acquiring team another decision point. That does not mean every later success belongs to the original trade, but it does mean the asset did not disappear. Conversely, when an incoming player leaves without return or a pick fails to convey, the trade details close more quickly. The stronger side here kept more useful choices alive after the first transaction.

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: Playoff and Team-Building Translation

Atlanta can point to Hunter's role in the 2021 run, and that is meaningful. New Orleans cannot answer with a comparable deep playoff run from the original package alone. However, playoff credit is only one part of the grade. Jones' defense and low-cost starting role created sustained roster value, while Hunter's availability and consistency limited Atlanta's return. The Hawks therefore earn a solid B rather than a losing grade in the C range, even though New Orleans wins overall. Postseason translation is weighted when it is directly connected to the acquired asset. A rotation player who fills a specific matchup role on a deep run can be more valuable than a higher-scoring player on a noncompetitive roster, while a rebuilding team should not be penalized for lacking immediate playoff opportunities. The key is whether the acquisition advanced the objective the team was actually pursuing. The postseason evidence in this trade either validates that objective or shows the limits of what the incoming package changed.

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: Risk, Contract and Development Exposure

New Orleans accepted development risk across several young players. Atlanta accepted concentration and injury risk in Hunter. Diversification worked better. Hayes was a miss relative to his draft slot, but the package survived that miss because other branches hit. Atlanta's one-player bet produced a good starter but not a franchise-changing star. The trade shows why the number of credible asset paths matters when evaluating a rebuild transaction. Every trade prices risk differently. Veterans bring age and contract risk; prospects bring development risk; picks bring uncertainty; and cap-clearing moves depend on what the flexibility later enables. A good decision can still produce a poor result, and a risky decision can still deserve a strong hindsight grade if it pays off. The final judgment separates process context from completed value: context explains the bet, while the grade records what the bet ultimately returned.

De'Andre Hunter rights / Hayes, Alexander-Walker and future-pick package: grading scale

Pelicans Win. Atlanta received a legitimate starter in De'Andre Hunter, but New Orleans' diversified return produced Nickeil Alexander-Walker, multiple developmental shots and the future-pick chain that became Herb Jones. Hayes' disappointing development keeps the grade below A+, while Hunter's real playoff value protects Atlanta from a harsh mark. The total portfolio still favors New Orleans, A to B. The grading scale also avoids extremes unless the evidence demands them. An A-range result should reflect either exceptional value, a major postseason contribution, a premium asset chain, or several strong outcomes from a modest cost. A C-range result can still include useful players or legitimate strategic benefits, while a D or F requires a clear and durable value deficit. That scale keeps this transaction comparable with the other evidence-based reviews rather than treating every winner as an A+ and every loser as a failure.

Final Verdict

Pelicans Win. Atlanta received a legitimate starter in De'Andre Hunter, but New Orleans' diversified return produced Nickeil Alexander-Walker, multiple developmental shots and the future-pick chain that became Herb Jones. Hayes' disappointing development keeps the grade below A+, while Hunter's real playoff value protects Atlanta from a harsh mark. The total portfolio still favors New Orleans, A to B. The higher grade is therefore based on both quality and control. A team deserves more credit when it receives a useful player for several seasons, a meaningful playoff contributor, or an asset that can later be converted without adding disproportionate new value. It deserves less credit when the headline acquisition is productive but short-lived or when later success depends mostly on unrelated moves. The comparison here is not perfection versus failure; it is which side created the stronger combination of performance, duration, fit and retained flexibility.

Research sources (8)