NFL Trade Verdict

Indianapolis acquired the 138th pick in the 2003 draft from…

Indianapolis acquired the 138th pick in the 2003 draft from Houston and used it on Robert Mathis, sending the Texans a 2004 fourth-rounder that became safety Glenn Earl at No. 122. Mathis developed into one of the greatest pass rushers in Colts history, finishing with 123 career sacks and 52 forced fumbles. Houston received a short-term starter, creating an enormous value gap.

Houston Texans Received

  • pick 2004 4th round pick (122nd overall, Glenn Earl)

Indianapolis Colts Received

  • pick 2003 5th round pick (138th overall, Robert Mathis)

Trade Analysis

The original draft-value logic favored Houston. The Texans sent Indianapolis the 138th selection in 2003 in exchange for a fourth-round pick the following year, effectively moving a fifth-round asset forward and up a round. Houston eventually used No. 122 in 2004 on Notre Dame safety Glenn Earl. Earl started 31 games across four seasons with the Texans and provided some legitimate defensive service before injuries shortened his career.

Indianapolis transformed the lower pick into something extraordinary. At No. 138, the Colts selected Alabama A&M pass rusher Robert Mathis. He became a fixture for 13 seasons, finishing with 123 sacks, 52 forced fumbles, five Pro Bowl selections and a first-team All-Pro honor. Mathis was part of the 2006 Super Bowl championship team and later led the league with 19.5 sacks in 2013. Few fifth-round picks in league history have delivered that combination of longevity, peak production and franchise identity.

That outcome overwhelms the initial round-based value comparison. Houston's decision was not irrational; teams routinely trade a current pick for a higher future selection because the delayed choice carries more nominal value. The Texans even received a player who started for them. But Indianapolis demonstrated why individual scouting can blow up conventional draft economics. The Colts identified a small-school edge rusher whose speed translated immediately and then developed him into one of the defining defenders of the Peyton Manning era.

Houston does not deserve the lowest possible grade because Earl contributed and the logic of gaining a future fourth was reasonable. Still, no amount of draft logic can erase the difference between a short-term safety and a player with 123 sacks, a championship ring and multiple major honors. Indianapolis receives an A-plus for turning a fifth-round slot into a franchise legend; Houston lands near the bottom because the opportunity cost became enormous.

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