Indianapolis turned the third pick in the 2018 draft into a…
Indianapolis turned the third pick in the 2018 draft into a four-pick package that became Quenton Nelson, Braden Smith, additional 2018 draft capital and the 2019 selection used on Rock Ya-Sin. Nelson became one of the league’s defining guards and Smith a long-term starting tackle. New York used No. 3 on Sam Darnold, whose Jets tenure lasted three seasons before he was traded to Carolina.
Indianapolis Colts Received
- pick 2018 1st round pick (6th overall, Quenton Nelson), 2018 2nd round pick (37th overall, Braden Smith), 2018 2nd round pick (49th overall subsequently traded, Dallas Goedert ) and 2019 2nd round pick (34th overall, Rock Ya-Sin)
New York Jets Received
- pick 2018 1st round pick (3rd overall, Sam Darnold )
Trade Analysis
The Jets made this trade more than a month before the 2018 draft because they wanted control of a quarterback near the top of the board. Moving from No. 6 to No. 3 cost New York both of its 2018 second-round selections and another second-rounder in 2019. The Colts accepted the move because they could remain inside the top six while adding premium capital.
Indianapolis converted the sixth pick into Quenton Nelson, and that alone gave the deal enduring value. Nelson became an immediate elite starter, earning Pro Bowl and All-Pro recognition across multiple seasons while giving the Colts a foundational interior lineman. Pick No. 37 became Braden Smith, who developed into a long-term starting right tackle. The No. 49 selection was moved again, and the 2019 second-round choice became Rock Ya-Sin, giving Indianapolis still more roster value from the same transaction.
New York’s entire case depended on Darnold becoming the franchise quarterback. He started 38 games for the Jets over three seasons and had stretches of promising play, but turnovers, injuries and inconsistent team results prevented the bet from working. After the 2020 season, New York traded him to Carolina for a package headlined by future second- and fourth-round selections, recovering some value but conceding that the original plan had failed.
The difference is not simply that Darnold fell short. Indianapolis received two premium offensive-line starters from the immediate return, including a player who became one of the best guards of his generation, plus additional draft value. That is extraordinary conversion of a move down only three spots.
The Colts deserve an A+ and a decisive win. The Jets earn a D: the aggressive logic was understandable for a team chasing a quarterback, but the price was enormous and the player selected did not become the long-term answer.